One certainty – sustained population growth will fuel demand across all property types

The most current US numbers peg DFW at more than 6.9 million people.  If you look back in time, over several economic cycles, our community has expanded dramatically – and consistently!  For example, in 1970 we had less than 2.5 million people living in the Metroplex.  Granted, that is a really long time ago…  If we go back to the end of the tech boom, however, we have added 1.8 million new residents.  Importantly, this in not taking place in a vacuum.  Rather, it is a trend that is being seen across Texas and many of the southern US states.

Forecast are always tough.  The state brackets their projections with low, medium, and high range estimates.  Looking at the “mid-range”, Texas is expected to hit 32.7 million residents by 2030.  That’s an increase of 5.7 million.  In comparison, if their higher forecast is hit, that translates into 10+million new people in the state.  For DFW we have relied on the mid-range forecast.  Under that approach, DFW is expected to reach 9.0 million by 2030.  That is more than a 30% increase – and is a faster rate of increase than the state.  That kind of growth is not at all surprising – and is totally reasonable given we added 500,000 since 2010.

For commercial real estate professionals like us, this growth will fuel demand for all types of uses.  Housing is the obvious one, but it will also change our built landscape significantly because these new residents will require new retail, expanded job centers, and new distribution space to meet their growing needs.  Likewise, new infrastructure (schools, roads, utilities, and the like) will have to be developed.  And, as we have noted in the past, over this not-to-distant future we will see both greenfield development, as well as infill across the metroplex to accommodate these new residents.

Chart of the Week 5.11.15